Polymarket Proves Its Worth: 90% Accuracy According to New Research

Polymarket, a prediction platform built on blockchain technology, is once again in the spotlight. New research by data scientist Alex McCullough from New York shows that the platform is achieving solid results: an accuracy of at least 90%. The findings, presented via a dashboard on the market analysis platform Dune, show that Polymarket has its affairs in order – and that’s good news for those who rely on decentralized predictions.

How accurate is Polymarket exactly?

McCullough delved deep into the data and tracked the performance of Polymarket over various time spans: a month, a week, a day, 12 hours, and 4 hours before the closing of markets. The results? A month in advance, Polymarket is 90.5% accurate. A week before, that drops slightly to 89.2%, and a day before to 88.6%. But it gets interesting in the last few hours: 12 hours before closing, the platform scores 90.2%, and 4 hours before it even peaks at 94.2%. That’s a success rate that many an analyst would be envious of.

In an interview with Polymarket’s blog The Oracle, McCullough explains why he chose these periods. “Four hours is the minimum, because markets don’t close immediately. Sometimes it takes days for a prediction to really come true,” he says. His method? He counted markets that scored above a 50% chance and checked whether they correctly predicted ‘Yes’ or ‘No’, using historical data as backup. He left out extreme outliers to keep the picture clear.

Long-term markets steal the show

A striking discovery: markets that are open longer often become more accurate as time progresses – although you only really see this in the last 4 hours. How can it be that the accuracy a month in advance is higher than a day before? McCullough has a logical explanation for this. “Long-term markets often have options that are almost certain, such as a resounding ‘No’ for Gavin Newsom as president in the last elections. These kinds of outcomes pull the average up.”

However, it’s not all roses. McCullough also spotted some noise: bias plays a role. Think of herd behavior, low liquidity, and acceptance bias – factors that cause users to sometimes overestimate the odds. This makes markets more expensive than necessary and results in ‘Yes’ outcomes occurring less often than you might think.

What does this mean for Polymarket?

With a score of 90%+, Polymarket proves that blockchain-based predictions are more than a gimmick. The platform, which runs on smart contracts and decentralized trading, shows that the crowd is often smarter than the average expert. But perfect? Not that. The influence of bias and liquidity remains a point of attention, especially in the short term.

For crypto enthusiasts and traders, this research is a confirmation: Polymarket is a serious tool for spotting trends, whether it’s politics, sports, or whatever. The question now is: can the platform maintain this trend and address the weak spots? For now, it’s firmly on the radar – and for good reason. Check out that dashboard on Dune and judge for yourself!