Bitcoin in Conflict: Have We Reached the Bottom or Will We Go Lower?

The debate over the Bitcoin price rages on, with two prominent crypto analysts sharing contrasting views on X. Doctor Profit (@DrProfitCrypto) outlines two scenarios: a bottom between $68,000 and $74,000 in a normal market, or a crash to $50,000 in a Black Swan event – a rare, unexpected shock that can shake up the market. He doesn’t give an exact chance, but says: “A Black Swan was unlikely for months, but now I don’t rule it out – I would even welcome it.” He believes recent macroeconomic shifts make such a scenario more plausible.

On the other hand, there is Astronomer (@astronomer_zero), who is more optimistic and claims that the bottom has already been reached. He bases this on a pattern of Bitcoin price reversals around Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, which he says works in 14 out of 16 cases (87.5%). “No guarantees, but an 87.5% chance, given the chart and other signals I have shared,” he writes. His method analyzes price movements around FOMC dates, where markets often price in interest decisions. He believes Bitcoin usually finds a bottom between five days before and the day of the meeting itself.

With the next FOMC meeting on March 19, Astronomer predicts that the bottom will fall at the latest on that day, or has already been reached on March 5. He also points to “peak fear” in the market as an additional sign: “Fear reaches extreme levels, even respected traders become cautious. I see this as a strong bottom signal.” However, Doctor Profit leaves room for an unexpected downturn, while Astronomer relies on historical patterns.

The crypto market remains tense. Will Bitcoin recover, or is a larger correction lurking? The FOMC meeting could provide a crucial clue.