Bitcoin Awaits Sentiment Shift in the US, Says Ki Young Ju

March 6th, 2025
Max Latupeirissa

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, shared a sobering view of the crypto market with his 410,300 X-followers on March 5, 2025. As Bitcoin (BTC) hovers around $90,000 and Ethereum (ETH) sits at $2,200, he points to a crucial brake: “The market is likely to remain sluggish until sentiment in the US improves.” What is maintaining this stagnation, and what does it mean for BTC and ETH?

Bitcoin: Strong Foundation, Weak Impulse

Ki Young Ju sticks to his bull cycle belief, despite BTC’s recent dip from $95,000 to $82,000 (-8.57% in 24 hours). “No significant on-chain activity, neutral indicators – the bull cycle is intact,” he says. The fundamentals are robust: hash rates are rising (936.64 EH/s), mining rigs are growing (towards 5M), and institutional interest remains (think of BlackRock’s $39B ETF inflow in 2024). But the engine is sputtering. He adds:

“If this cycle ends here, nobody wants that – not whales, miners, TradFi, or Trump. (FYI, the market doesn’t care about retail.)”

The culprit? Weak US sentiment, exacerbated by Trump’s 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico (March 4), which pulled the S&P 500 down 2% and dragged crypto along. Glassnode’s distribution phase (58 days <0.5 accumulation trend score) and whale dumps (40K BTC) reinforce this. Ki Young Ju sees no quick turnaround without a macro booster – like the White House Crypto Summit (March 7) or Fed interest rate cuts.

Ethereum: No Distribution, But Weakness

For ETH ($2,100, -7.5%), Ki Young Ju is milder than Glassnode’s bearish tone. “No distribution phase,” he says, unlike BTC. Past distribution – sideways trading after a bull run, before a bear run – doesn’t fit ETH’s pattern. Despite a drop from $2,540 (Sunday) to $2,000, and whale accumulation (170K ETH in 72 hours), it lacks fire. “Retail liquidity is weak compared to the previous bull cycle,” he notes. In 2021, massive private inflow drove ETH to $4,800; now that demand is absent, even with Trump’s reserve mention.

What is Holding Back Crypto?

Ki Young Ju’s key point: sentiment and liquidity from the US are the bottleneck. Trump’s pro-crypto push – the reserve, the summit – clashes with his tariff chaos, which stifles risk assets. On-chain data shows no panic, but also no spark. BTC’s bull cycle hangs on fundamentals, ETH’s on a waiting market. Without a US sentiment shift – think Powell’s speech (March 7) or macro relief – it remains “sluggish,” as he predicts.