Does Google’s Willow Quantum Chip Pose a Threat to Bitcoin’s Cryptography?

The unveiling of Google’s Willow, a state-of-the-art quantum computer chip, has reignited the discussion about Bitcoin‘s cryptography and its potential vulnerabilities. On December 12, a lively discussion took place on an X Spaces broadcast where BTC enthusiasts discussed the severity of the threat. Some suggested that by 2030 we could see quantum computers with 1 million qubits capable of unraveling current cryptographic systems.

Can Bitcoin survive the quantum revolution?

The authors of “The Big Bitcoin Book”, Ben Sigman and Fred Krueger, along with Ian Smith from quantumevm.com, delved deep into the matter during an X Spaces discussion. The conversation focused on the possibility that quantum computers could crack elliptical curve cryptography (ECC), RSA, or Bitcoin’s SHA256 hash function, raising questions about the future of blockchain security.

The panelists discussed the various Bitcoin address formats, such as Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK), and how a quantum computer using Shor’s or Grover’s algorithms could break the cryptography. It was speculated that these powerful machines could possibly appear as early as 2027 or before 2030. The panel agreed that the threat is real and potentially imminent.

Bitcoin address formats and their vulnerabilities

Bitcoin has various address formats, including P2PK, P2PKH, P2SH, P2WPKH, P2WSH, and the newer Taproot (P2TR). P2PK addresses are seen as particularly vulnerable because they make their public keys public, making them susceptible to a quantum attack via Shor’s algorithm. This is in contrast to more modern formats that offer extra hashing layers for protection.

Krueger later shared some insights from the discussion on X, including the need to fork Bitcoin and move coins to quantum-resistant addresses to protect the old, vulnerable addresses, including those of Satoshi Nakamoto.

Skepticism and counterarguments

However, not everyone was convinced of the immediate threat. Forbes contributor Ansel Lindner highlighted that IBM’s roadmap foresees a longer period at 1000 qubits to improve error correction, while he questioned Google’s claim of quantum progress methodologically. Adam Back, the inventor of Hashcash and CEO of Blockstream, expressed his doubts about the feasibility of 1 million qubits by 2030.

Satoshi Nakamoto’s foresight

In a Bitcointalk thread from 2010, Satoshi Nakamoto indicated that Bitcoin could switch to a new hash function if SHA-256 were to fail, either abruptly or gradually. He suggested that the software could be programmed to switch to a new hash after a certain block number, allowing for an orderly transition.

The quantum era and Palihapitiya’s timeline

Concerns about the vulnerability of Nakamoto’s legacy addresses were further discussed, especially in light of the potential impact if these were to be hacked. Chamath Palihapitiya, a well-known investor, suggested that quantum computers could crack Bitcoin’s encryption within 2-5 years, based on Google’s Willow chip.

Conclusion and preparation

The discussion about quantum computing and Bitcoin’s safety underscores the need for proactive measures. Whether the threat becomes real within this decade or not, preparing for quantum-resistant protocols could strengthen the security and trust in Bitcoin. While experts debate the feasibility and timing of these technological leaps, the flexibility and adaptability of Bitcoin’s initial design remain a strong point in the conversation about the future of digital ownership and decentralized finance.