Benjamin Cowen Foresees Potential Correction for Bitcoin in January

A widely followed analyst has issued a warning about a potential correction of Bitcoin (BTC) at the start of 2025, as the leading crypto asset enters its first year after the halving. Benjamin Cowen stated in a new video update to his 853,000 followers on YouTube that Bitcoin could correct by double digits in January based on historical events. Cowen indicated the following:

“In the last two post-halving years, there was a correction in January. What’s interesting is that we’ve already had some sort of correction this time in December, but if you look at what happened in 2021, there was a correction of about 30% in January. If you look at 2017, there was also a drop of about 30% in the post-halving year in January.”

Cowen further indicated that the correction in December may have been caused by the expectation of the historical January correction, under which Bitcoin may not correct further this month. He added the following to this:

“But the counter-argument is of course that Bitcoin didn’t really have any problems at the end of December in the previous two cases. It actually went up [in December 2016], followed by a drop in January. The same happened again in 2021. This time it’s been a bit different, because it started to drop in December instead of rising. The optimist would of course say: ‘Maybe the market was anticipating the correction because everyone was talking about it coming in January; why wouldn’t it happen in December?

If you look at the price range here in December 2024, it’s already dropped about 15%. A 30% drop would actually bring it around the 20-week moving average at $77,712. The optimist would certainly look at that and say: ‘Maybe this was just a forward correction, because everyone already knew it was going to happen, and by the time it actually happens, Bitcoin has already made that move.’”

In addition, Cowen suggests that Bitcoin came out lower in December based on the historical correlation with the return on 10-year bonds (US10Y). Cowen indicated:

“Another way to look at it is that there might be something preventing Bitcoin from rising further, and that could simply be the strong rise in interest rates in recent weeks. We haven’t seen movements as strong as these in previous December months of halving years due to the 10-year interest rate. If you were to overlay the 10-year interest rate on this chart, the 10-year interest rate has never been this high at this point in Bitcoin’s history. And that could be the reason.”

Bitcoin is currently trading at $94,584, an increase of 1.2% in the last 24 hours.