Bitcoin Analysis: Bullish Scenario vs Bearish Scenario – Where is the Bottom?

Bitcoin is at a critical point, and the market is anxiously watching how the next move unfolds. Will we form a bottom here around the golden pocket and move up, or will we take another step lower to retest previous highs? In this analysis, we examine both scenarios and look at the technical structures that have played a role in the past.

📈 Bullish scenario – Bottom formation around the golden pocket ($80K-$82K)

One of the most bullish scenarios would be that Bitcoin builds a base around the golden pocket and starts an upward movement from there.

Why would this be logical?

🔹 Golden Pocket Support → The 0.618-0.65 Fibonacci retracement, better known as the golden pocket, has historically been one of the strongest support zones for Bitcoin. Often we see that when Bitcoin breaks out of a long range, it first makes a rally and then comes back to test the golden pocket before a larger uptrend follows. We saw this, among other things:

🔹 CME Gap filled → Bitcoin has recently filled a CME gap, a common phenomenon where the price returns to an unfilled price gap on the futures market. The fact that we are now seeing a strong reaction from this level could mean that the market wants to form a local bottom here.

🔹 Long range → Back to golden pocket → New trend → We have seen this pattern more often: Bitcoin makes a long consolidation, breaks out, and comes back to test support in the golden pocket before a larger rally begins.

If Bitcoin forms a base here around 80K-82K, then we can expect a strong reaction upwards in the short term and possibly new all-time highs in the coming months.

📉 Bearish scenario – Retest of the March high ($72K-$75K)

A less bullish but still structurally healthy scenario would be that Bitcoin takes another step lower towards 72K-75K, to retest the high of March.

Why would this be logical?

🔹 Bitcoin often retests old highs → This is something Bitcoin does more often:

• Beginning of 2023 → The price broke out, retested the previous high, and went further up.
• Beginning of 2024 → Exactly the same happened again: breakout, backtest of the high, and a larger rally.
• Now we are at the beginning of 2025, and Bitcoin could repeat exactly the same pattern.

🔹 Support around 72K-75K → The high of March acted as resistance before. If we fall back there and hold that zone as support, then that could form a strong base for a new uptrend.

🔹 Healthy correction in a bull market → Bitcoin has already made a strong upward movement. A fallback to the previous high as support would be a logical and healthy correction before Bitcoin continues the bull run.

If Bitcoin tests 72K-75K and forms a bottom there, then that probably means we consolidate a bit longer before the next impulse upwards.

🔎 Conclusion – What now?

Bitcoin is at a crucial decision point. The coming days and weeks will determine whether we hold the golden pocket as support and go straight up, or whether we first need to retest the March high before we continue the bull run.

✔️ Bullish scenario: Bottom formation in the golden pocket (80K-82K) → Bitcoin sets a higher low and breaks higher quickly.
✔️ Bearish scenario: We lose the golden pocket and drop towards the March high (72K-75K) → Bitcoin makes a deeper retest before the next phase begins.

For now: all eyes on the price action and how Bitcoin reacts to these crucial zones.

Disclaimer: The analyses above are based on technical patterns and trends in the crypto market. It is crucial to emphasize that this information is not intended as financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments inherently carry risks and are subject to volatility. For investment decisions, it is recommended to do your own research, seek financial advice, and only invest what you can afford to lose.